AT&T Inc. (T) — closed signal from September 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 4% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 25, 2025
AT&T's price looks washed out, and more buyers than usual are stepping in, which can set the stage for a short-term bounce. The core business is stable but not shining. Rising interest rates can hurt stocks that pay high dividends, so that is a risk. If the market stays a bit positive and AT&T keeps promotions in check, its value and improving free cash flow could help shares recover over the next 0-3 months. Keep positions small.
Primary drivers
- Price looks very beaten down while trading activity is heavier than usual
- High dividend and low price compared to earnings help attract buyers
- Rising interest rates can make dividend stocks like this less appealing
- Free cash flow is getting better, easing worries about paying the dividend
How it played out
T: target was not reached
Lyra published T on 2025-09-25 at 28.34 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to a beaten down price, heavier than usual trading activity, a high dividend, a low price compared to earnings, better free cash flow, and the risk that rising interest rates could make dividend stocks less appealing.
Inside the window, T peaked at 28.44 on 2025-09-25, for a peak gain of 0.4%. It stayed below the 30.84 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-24, it ended at 24.66. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-22, AT&T reported third-quarter revenue of $30.7 billion and adjusted earnings of 54 cents per share. The company also said it added 405,000 postpaid phone customers and 270,000 fiber internet subscribers.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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