T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from September 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 2% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 25, 2025
TMUS seems to have fallen too far and could rebound soon. News on community efforts, marketing, and 5G use keeps the brand visible. Company basics lag, so begin with small buys and tight risk limits. If the market stays reasonably upbeat, loyal customers and a strong network could support a 0-3 month recovery as price steadies and promotions remain measured.
Primary drivers
- Recent sharp drop suggests a bounce is likely as buyers return
- New 5G and local marketing efforts keep customers engaged and curious
- Trusted brand with few customers leaving supports steady demand
- Business results trail peers, so start small and control downside risk
How it played out
TMUS: target was never reached
Lyra published TMUS at $240.12 on 2025-09-25 with an 18% expected gain over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a sharp recent drop, possible buyer return, 5G and local marketing efforts, loyal customers, and a trusted brand. It also noted that business results trailed peers.
Inside the window, the stock peaked at $241.12 on 2025-09-25, a 0.4% gain. It stayed below the $281.94 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-24, TMUS ended at $199.02. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-23, T-Mobile reported third-quarter results. Investor's Business Daily reported adjusted earnings of $2.41 per share, revenue of $21.95 billion, and more than 1 million postpaid phone additions. On the same date, Barron's reported that the company named Srini Gopalan as the next CEO, effective 2025-11-01.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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