Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Ltd. (TIGR) — closed signal from September 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 24, 2025 — -11.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.18 Published $12.62 Target $9.02 Window close $11.19 Peak
$10.00 – $10.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.18Published — price the day we called it
$12.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$11.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$9.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-11.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$9.02
last close inside the window, ended December 24, 2025
Peak price
$11.19
peak on September 30, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$12.62
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.00 – $10.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.18
published September 25, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UP Fintech looks solid on business basics while the stock seems beaten down, which can set up a bounce. A respected ranking and fresh value notes support the case. Market mood is positive, but some short-term trend signs are still weak, so buying in steps makes sense. Over the next 0-3 months, better trading activity and global growth options could help if momentum steadies. Watch risks from the foreign listing and rules.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger business basics than similar companies
  • Analyst ranking backs the price-for-quality story
  • Signals hint the slide may be ending soon
  • Foreign listing and rule-change risks to monitor

How it played out

TIGR: target was not reached

Lyra published TIGR at $10.18 on 2025-09-25 with a short-term thesis for 24% expected growth. The target was $12.62. The thesis pointed to stronger business basics than similar companies, an analyst ranking that backed the price-for-quality case, signs that the slide may have been ending, and foreign listing and rule-change risks to monitor.

Inside the window from 2025-09-25 to 2025-12-24, TIGR rose to a peak of $11.19 on 2025-09-30, a 9.9% gain. It stayed below the target. By the end of the window, it was $9.02. The thesis only partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-09, Investor's Business Daily reported that TIGR's Relative Strength Rating rose from 79 to 83. The same article said earnings growth was 700% in the latest quarter and revenue growth was 59%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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