Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) — closed signal from September 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 24, 2025 — +0.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$12.24 Published $13.48 Target $12.29 Window close $12.91 Peak
$11.80 – $12.38Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.24Published — price the day we called it
$13.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$12.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+0.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+5.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$12.29
last close inside the window, ended December 24, 2025
Peak price
$12.91
peak on December 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$11.80 – $12.38
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$12.24
published September 25, 2025
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NWBI looks like a high-quality local bank with strong finances and a steady reputation. It appears cheaper than similar banks, which can help the price catch up. The price has been quiet but is starting to improve. A plan to buy in steps over the next 0-3 months makes sense as interest rates settle and loan losses stay low, aiming for the share price to edge back toward where peers trade.

Primary drivers

  • Solid finances and upbeat investor mood show a sturdy, well-run regional bank.
  • Looks cheaper than it should be, leaving room for a fairer price.
  • Reliable dividend helps patience while rates level off and soften risk.
  • Recent price calm gives a sensible window to start positions gradually.

How it played out

NWBI: thesis rose but target was missed

Lyra published NWBI at $12.24 on September 25, 2025, with expected growth of 12% and a target of $13.48. The thesis pointed to solid finances, upbeat investor mood, a cheaper price than similar banks, a reliable dividend, and a calmer price setup while rates leveled off and loan losses stayed low.

Inside the window, NWBI rose but never reached the target. It peaked at $12.91 on December 11, 2025, for a 5.5% gain. The window ended on December 24, 2025, with the stock at $12.29. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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