Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 25, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 24, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.97 Published $38.00 Target $36.61 Window close $37.97 Peak
$32.74 – $33.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.97Published — price the day we called it
$38.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$37.97
peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$36.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 25, 2025 – December 24, 2025

The thesis — published September 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$38.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.74 – $33.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.97
published September 25, 2025
Confidence
95%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Short-term idea for the next 0-3 months: the stock looks beaten down after a fast drop, while the recent average price is starting to turn upward. The company is expanding with a $27M purchase of two UK care homes, shares are up about 25% this year, and the CFO change appears smooth. If interest rates hold steady, steady rent checks should appeal to income investors. The price could drift back toward recent highs with careful, staged buys.

Primary drivers

  • Sharp recent drop easing, hinting the trend may improve again soon
  • $27M UK deal adds two care homes and grows properties and rent
  • Story, investor mood, and finances align to support near-term gains
  • Steady rates make dependable rent streams attractive to buyers

How it played out

CTRE: target missed after an 11.8% peak

Lyra published CTRE on 2025-09-25 at $33.97 as a short-term idea for 0-3 months. The thesis expected 14% growth toward $38. It pointed to a sharp recent drop easing, a $27M UK deal adding two care homes, steadier investor mood and finances, and steady rates making rent streams more attractive.

Inside the window, CTRE rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $37.97 on 2025-12-04, with an 11.8% gain. It stayed below $38. The signal ended at $36.61 on 2025-12-24. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-05, CareTrust announced third-quarter results. Investor's Business Daily reported earnings grew 35% to 35 cents a share and sales grew 71% to $132.4 million. The same article said the company acquired 12 skilled nursing facilities and one skilled nursing campus for $436.5 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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