Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from September 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 25, 2025
This regional bank looks reasonably priced and may be set for a short-term bounce. A common market gauge shows the stock has fallen more than usual, which often snaps back. Cash-flow valuation work says it could be up to 43% cheaper than its worth, and net interest income is expected to rise about 25.5% over several years. With the market turning mildly positive and rates easing, solid regional banks can drift back toward fair value.
Primary drivers
- Valuation work suggests shares may be up to 43% below fair value.
- Net interest income projected to grow about 25.5% over several years.
- Stock looks sold off more than usual, which often leads to a bounce.
- Investor mood and company results both look healthy and aligned.
How it played out
ONB: thesis partly played out but missed the target
Lyra published ONB at 21.71 on 2025-09-25, with 16% expected growth and a 25.03 target. The thesis pointed to valuation work that put shares up to 43% below fair value, net interest income projected to grow about 25.5% over several years, a sold-off setup, and healthy investor mood and company results.
Inside the window, ONB rose but did not reach 25.03. The stock peaked at 23.59 on 2025-12-22, for an 8.6% gain. It ended at 23.06. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-12-01, Axios reported that Old National had provided the primary source of initial funding for Generations Community Bank, which was planned to launch in early 2026 as a separate for-profit institution.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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