Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from September 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 24, 2025 — +6.2% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 25, 2025
This regional bank looks reasonably priced and may be set for a short-term bounce. A common market gauge shows the stock has fallen more than usual, which often snaps back. Cash-flow valuation work says it could be up to 43% cheaper than its worth, and net interest income is expected to rise about 25.5% over several years. With the market turning mildly positive and rates easing, solid regional banks can drift back toward fair value.
Primary drivers
- Valuation work suggests shares may be up to 43% below fair value.
- Net interest income projected to grow about 25.5% over several years.
- Stock looks sold off more than usual, which often leads to a bounce.
- Investor mood and company results both look healthy and aligned.
How it played out
ONB: thesis partly played out but missed the target
Lyra published ONB at 21.71 on 2025-09-25, with 16% expected growth and a 25.03 target. The thesis pointed to valuation work that put shares up to 43% below fair value, net interest income projected to grow about 25.5% over several years, a sold-off setup, and healthy investor mood and company results.
Inside the window, ONB rose but did not reach 25.03. The stock peaked at 23.59 on 2025-12-22, for an 8.6% gain. It ended at 23.06. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-12-01, Axios reported that Old National had provided the primary source of initial funding for Generations Community Bank, which was planned to launch in early 2026 as a separate for-profit institution.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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