Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from September 24, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 24, 2025
ONB looks like a solid bank stock at a fair price with rising earnings. Some analysts think it may be up to 43% undervalued. The bank's interest income is expected to jump 40.6% next year, lifting profits. In the next 0-3 months, better bank-sector mood and the low valuation could lift shares toward the high $20s. Key swing factors: interest rates and loan quality.
Primary drivers
- Shares may be up to 43% below what analysts say it's worth
- Net interest income should rise, helping earnings next year
- Price is stabilizing and improving in recent weeks
- Many bank stocks are firming, which can help lift ONB too
How it played out
ONB: target was not reached
Lyra published ONB on September 24, 2025 at $22.05. The thesis expected 18% growth toward $25.86. It pointed to a fair price, rising earnings, possible undervaluation of up to 43%, expected net interest income growth of 40.6% next year, improving price action, firmer bank stocks, interest rates, and loan quality.
Inside the September 24 to December 23 window, ONB rose but never reached the target. The peak was $23.59 on December 22, with a 7% gain. It ended at $23.04. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the published target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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