Track record · closed signal

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) — closed signal from September 24, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025 — +20.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FIVE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$152.00 – $160.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$156.25Published — price the day we called it

$187.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$188.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$187.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 89 days.

At window close

+20.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$187.81

last close inside the window, ended December 23, 2025

Peak price

$188.72

peak on December 23, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$187.49

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$152.00 – $160.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$156.25

published September 24, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Five Below is executing well. Q2 net sales rose 23.7%, and management raised FY25 guidance, pointing to steady store traffic and growth. A class-action review is still in the background, but investors are focusing on the solid results, and buying interest is stronger than usual. Over the next 0-3 months, dips may hold as sales trends and expansion support a possible move toward the 180s, with rates and discounts worth watching.

Primary drivers

Q2 sales up 23.7%, and managers raised the full-year outlook for FY25
Buying interest and price strength are improving versus recent weeks
Budget-friendly shoppers keep visiting stores even in a tough economy
A class-action review exists, but so far it has not changed the business

How it played out

FIVE: target reached in 89 days

Lyra published FIVE at 156.25 on 2025-09-24, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to Q2 net sales up 23.7%, raised FY25 guidance, better buying interest, steady store traffic, and expansion. It also noted a class-action review in the background.

Inside the window, FIVE reached a peak of 188.72 on 2025-12-23. That was above the 187.49 target, with a peak gain of 20.8%. The target was reached in 89 days. The stock ended the window at 187.81. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-17, CT Insider reported that Five Below's website listed a Hamden, Connecticut store opening for 2025-11-21. On 2025-10-22, The U.S. Sun reported that Five Below would open 8 stores in Washington and Oregon on 2025-11-07.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All FIVE signals