Track record · closed signal

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from July 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2025 — +53.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$121.75 – $125.74Entry zone — fair-value band

$124.31Published — price the day we called it

$161.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$200.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$190.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 72 days.

At window close

+53.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+61.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$190.88

last close inside the window, ended October 6, 2025

Peak price

$200.92

peak on October 6, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$161.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$121.75 – $125.74

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$124.31

published July 8, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

After a 25% drop, one key measure says selling may have gone too far, yet another shows the long-term trend is still healthy. Scarce supply of Micron’s newest chips could let the firm raise prices, and a major industry event in August might lead analysts to lift profit forecasts. In similar oversold situations the stock has gained over 20% within two months. We will wait for proof that buyers are stepping in before committing fully.

Primary drivers

Huge sell-off suggests many sellers are gone; past cases saw 20% rebounds in 2 months.
Limited supply of high-end memory chips lets Micron charge more, lifting profits.
News from August chip conference could push analysts to raise their earnings estimates.
A very strong long-term momentum score says the bigger upward trend is still alive.

How it played out

MU: target reached in 72 days

Lyra published MU at $124.31 on July 8, 2025, with 30% expected growth and a $161.44 target. The thesis pointed to a 25% drop, an oversold setup where past cases saw 20% rebounds in 2 months, limited supply of high-end memory chips, a possible August conference catalyst, and a still-healthy long-term trend.

Inside the window, MU reached the target in 72 days. The stock peaked at $200.92 on October 6, 2025, for a 61.6% gain, above the $161.44 target. It ended at $190.88. The published thesis played out and then some.

What happened during the window

On August 11, 2025, Micron raised fiscal fourth-quarter guidance, including revenue of $11.2 billion. On September 23, 2025, Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $11.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.03.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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