Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from July 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 72 days.
The thesis — published July 8, 2025
After a 25% drop, one key measure says selling may have gone too far, yet another shows the long-term trend is still healthy. Scarce supply of Micron’s newest chips could let the firm raise prices, and a major industry event in August might lead analysts to lift profit forecasts. In similar oversold situations the stock has gained over 20% within two months. We will wait for proof that buyers are stepping in before committing fully.
Primary drivers
- Huge sell-off suggests many sellers are gone; past cases saw 20% rebounds in 2 months.
- Limited supply of high-end memory chips lets Micron charge more, lifting profits.
- News from August chip conference could push analysts to raise their earnings estimates.
- A very strong long-term momentum score says the bigger upward trend is still alive.
How it played out
MU: target reached in 72 days
Lyra published MU at $124.31 on July 8, 2025, with 30% expected growth and a $161.44 target. The thesis pointed to a 25% drop, an oversold setup where past cases saw 20% rebounds in 2 months, limited supply of high-end memory chips, a possible August conference catalyst, and a still-healthy long-term trend.
Inside the window, MU reached the target in 72 days. The stock peaked at $200.92 on October 6, 2025, for a 61.6% gain, above the $161.44 target. It ended at $190.88. The published thesis played out and then some.
What happened during the window
On August 11, 2025, Micron raised fiscal fourth-quarter guidance, including revenue of $11.2 billion. On September 23, 2025, Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $11.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.03.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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