Track record · closed signal

Open Text Corporation (OTEX) — closed signal from September 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025 — -13.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

OTEX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$37.38 – $38.86Entry zone — fair-value band

$38.38Published — price the day we called it

$45.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$39.58Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$33.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 16% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-13.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$33.35

last close inside the window, ended December 23, 2025

Peak price

$39.58

peak on October 15, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$45.68

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$37.38 – $38.86

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$38.38

published September 24, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

OpenText looks reasonably priced with improving mood around the stock. A major bank now expects it to reach $50, and our own value checks suggest there is still room to climb. The company has raised its dividend for 12 straight years, which attracts steady buyers. In the next 0-3 months, we prefer buying small dips as upgrades and income appeal bring in demand, aiming for a move into the low-to-mid $40s.

Primary drivers

Big bank upgrade to Outperform with a $50 target can draw fresh interest
Our value work suggests shares are worth more than today's price level
Price trend improving, with buyers gaining control in recent sessions
12 years of dividend increases can attract long-term, income-seeking investors

How it played out

OTEX: target was not reached

Lyra published OTEX at $38.38 on 2025-09-24 with 20% expected growth and a $45.68 target. The thesis pointed to a big bank upgrade to Outperform with a $50 target, value work that saw room to climb, an improving price trend, and 12 years of dividend increases that could attract income-seeking buyers.

Inside the window, OTEX peaked at $39.58 on 2025-10-15, a 3.1% gain. That stayed below the $45.68 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-23, the stock ended at $33.35. The thesis only partially played out, because the early rise faded and the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All OTEX signals