Track record · closed signal

Open Text Corporation (OTEX) — closed signal from September 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

OTEX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$38.38 Published $45.68 Target $33.35 Window close $39.58 Peak
$37.38 – $38.86Entry zone — fair-value band
$38.38Published — price the day we called it
$45.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$39.58Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$33.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 16% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$39.58
peak on October 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$33.35
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 24, 2025 – December 23, 2025

The thesis — published September 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$45.68
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$37.38 – $38.86
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$38.38
published September 24, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

OpenText looks reasonably priced with improving mood around the stock. A major bank now expects it to reach $50, and our own value checks suggest there is still room to climb. The company has raised its dividend for 12 straight years, which attracts steady buyers. In the next 0-3 months, we prefer buying small dips as upgrades and income appeal bring in demand, aiming for a move into the low-to-mid $40s.

Primary drivers

  • Big bank upgrade to Outperform with a $50 target can draw fresh interest
  • Our value work suggests shares are worth more than today's price level
  • Price trend improving, with buyers gaining control in recent sessions
  • 12 years of dividend increases can attract long-term, income-seeking investors

How it played out

OTEX: target was not reached

Lyra published OTEX at $38.38 on 2025-09-24 with 20% expected growth and a $45.68 target. The thesis pointed to a big bank upgrade to Outperform with a $50 target, value work that saw room to climb, an improving price trend, and 12 years of dividend increases that could attract income-seeking buyers.

Inside the window, OTEX peaked at $39.58 on 2025-10-15, a 3.1% gain. That stayed below the $45.68 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-23, the stock ended at $33.35. The thesis only partially played out, because the early rise faded and the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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