Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) — closed signal from September 24, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 24, 2025
Sally Beauty is working to win back shoppers as it sells both online and in stores. A DoorDash trial helps it reach city buyers fast, and more beauty spending is moving online. The stock looks like it could rise gradually over the next few months if store traffic and category data keep improving. We still want to see stronger up days that show real buying interest, and solid execution on pricing and promotions.
Primary drivers
- DoorDash test widens reach and speeds delivery to more urban customers
- More beauty sales are shifting online, boosting convenience and margins
- Stock momentum is improving, but we want clearer strength before adding
- Results depend on solid execution and smart promotions to draw shoppers
How it played out
SBH: target was not reached
Lyra published SBH at $15.83 on 2025-09-24 with 18% expected growth and a $18.67 target through 2025-12-23. The thesis pointed to a DoorDash test, more beauty sales moving online, improving stock momentum, and the need for solid execution and smart promotions.
Inside the window, SBH rose to $17.40 on 2025-11-13, a 10% peak gain. It stayed below the $18.67 target. The stock ended at $15.04 on 2025-12-23. The thesis partially played out because the price rose inside the window, but it never got there.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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