Track record · closed signal

Integral Ad Science Holding Corp. (IAS) — closed signal from September 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025 — +1.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IAS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$10.00 – $10.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$10.19Published — price the day we called it

$11.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$10.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$10.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 13% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+1.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$10.34

last close inside the window, ended December 23, 2025

Peak price

$10.34

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$11.41

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$10.00 – $10.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$10.19

published September 24, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

IAS is a short-term idea tied to a proposed sale at $10.30 from Novacap. That offer acts like a safety net under the share price. A law firm is checking whether the price is fair versus the $13.04 average analyst target, which could encourage a higher bid. In the next 0-3 months, frequent headlines about the review and timeline should guide trading and likely keep the stock near the offer range with limited downside.

Primary drivers

The $10.30 buyout offer helps keep the share price from falling far.
A legal check on fairness could nudge the buyer to raise the offer.
The price looks depressed, so it may drift back toward the offer.
With a buyer in place, downside looks smaller than usual near term.

How it played out

IAS: target was not reached

Lyra published IAS at $10.19 on 2025-09-24 as a short-term idea with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to a proposed sale at $10.30 from Novacap, a legal fairness check against the $13.04 average analyst target, and a view that the buyer in place limited near-term downside.

Inside the window from 2025-09-24 to 2025-12-23, IAS peaked at $10.34 on 2025-12-22. That was a 1.5% gain, but it stayed below the $11.41 target. The stock ended at $10.34. The thesis partly played out on price support, but it missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All IAS signals