Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from September 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025 — +8.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.48 – $93.97Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.31Published — price the day we called it

$106.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$102.05Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$101.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 67% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+8.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$101.18

last close inside the window, ended December 23, 2025

Peak price

$102.05

peak on December 23, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$106.07

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.48 – $93.97

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.31

published September 24, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks like a steady, high-quality pick with a new way to grow. The company is testing ways for everyday investors to access private investments, which could open a big new customer base. Client assets climbed to $11.23T in August. Over the next 0-3 months, as rates calm and mix improves, we see a slow climb, with upside from asset gains, but watch cash shifts and market swings.

Primary drivers

Testing access for everyday investors to participate in private investments
Client assets reached $11.23T in August, showing strong ongoing engagement
Buying interest appears to be improving, suggesting momentum may be turning up
Business fundamentals and investor mood look balanced, limiting downside risk

How it played out

SCHW: thesis partly played out, target not reached

Lyra published SCHW at $93.31 on September 24, 2025, with a short-term thesis for 14% growth toward $106.07. The thesis pointed to testing access for everyday investors to private investments, client assets of $11.23T in August, improving buying interest, and balanced business fundamentals and investor mood.

Inside the window, SCHW rose but stayed below the target. Its peak was $102.05 on December 23, 2025, a 9.4% gain. It never got there. The stock ended at $101.18. The verdict was partial: the direction was right, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On October 16, 2025, The Times reported Schwab's third quarter profit rose 67 percent to $2.4 billion and total client assets reached $11.6 trillion. On November 6, 2025, Barron's reported Schwab agreed to buy Forge Global in a transaction valued at approximately $660 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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