Track record · closed signal

GDS Holdings Limited (GDS) — closed signal from September 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 23, 2025 — -15.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GDS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$40.50 – $42.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$41.31Published — price the day we called it

$51.22Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$43.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$34.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-15.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$34.93

last close inside the window, ended December 23, 2025

Peak price

$43.94

peak on September 24, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$51.22

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$40.50 – $42.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$41.31

published September 24, 2025

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

GDS builds data centers for AI and cloud apps, and demand is rising while execution improves. Bank of America rates it a Buy with a $47.60 goal. The company targets 2025 sales of RMB 11.3-11.6B, showing plans to scale. Recent trading shows lots more people are buying than usual. Over the next 0-3 months, as sites fill up and interest in Asia AI capacity stays strong, the stock could return to the mid-to-high $40s.

Primary drivers

Bank of America keeps a Buy rating and a $47.60 goal, signaling confidence.
2025 sales outlook (RMB 11.3-11.6B) points to steady growth and scale.
Trading shows lots more buyers than usual, a positive short-term sign.
Rising need for AI-ready data centers supports long-term demand.

How it played out

GDS: the target was not reached

Lyra published GDS on 2025-09-24 at $41.31. The thesis expected 24% growth, with a target of $51.22. It pointed to Bank of America's Buy rating and $47.60 goal, the 2025 sales outlook of RMB 11.3-11.6B, heavier buying than usual, and demand for data centers built for artificial intelligence and cloud apps.

Inside the window from 2025-09-24 to 2025-12-23, GDS peaked at $43.94 on 2025-09-24, for a 6.4% gain. It never reached $51.22. The stock ended at $34.93. The thesis only partially played out: there was an early move higher, but it stayed below the target and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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