Track record · closed signal

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) — closed signal from September 23, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 22, 2025 — -0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SBH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.00 – $15.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.37Published — price the day we called it

$18.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$17.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$15.33Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-0.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$15.33

last close inside the window, ended December 22, 2025

Peak price

$17.40

peak on November 13, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 23, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$18.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.00 – $15.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.37

published September 23, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

SBH looks set for a short-term upswing. Mood around the stock is very positive, the recent average price is rising, and the pullback seems overdone, which can lead to a rebound. A new DoorDash tie-up brings on-demand delivery and pop-up events, likely lifting store and online traffic. If merchandising and inventory stay tight, the market could warm up over the next 3 months. Keep an eye on margins and price-sensitive shoppers.

Primary drivers

Very positive mood around the stock is bringing in more interested buyers today
A recent pullback looks overdone, which often leads to a short-term rebound
DoorDash adds fast delivery and events, widening reach to more customers
Better traffic and smarter product choices can lift sales and profitability

How it played out

SBH: thesis partially played out but missed the target

Lyra published SBH at $15.37 on 2025-09-23 as a short-term idea. The thesis expected 20% growth and pointed to very positive stock mood, a pullback that looked overdone, rising recent average price, a DoorDash tie-up for fast delivery and events, and possible help from better traffic, merchandising, and inventory discipline.

Inside the window, SBH rose to $17.40 on 2025-11-13, a 13.2% peak gain. That stayed below the $18.44 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-12-22, it ended at $15.33, near the publication price. The thesis partly played out, then faded before the window closed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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