Track record · closed signal

Integral Ad Science Holding Corp. (IAS) — closed signal from September 23, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 22, 2025 — +21% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IAS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$8.35 – $8.75Entry zone — fair-value band

$8.55Published — price the day we called it

$10.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$10.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$10.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 95% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+21%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+21%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$10.34

last close inside the window, ended December 22, 2025

Peak price

$10.34

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 23, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$10.42

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$8.35 – $8.75

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$8.55

published September 23, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

IAS may bounce back after bad news pushed it down. Lower rates help growing tech stocks, and buyers seem to be returning. The open investigation is a real risk, so keep positions small, wait to see lots more people buying than usual, and use close exit points. If advertisers keep needing tools that check ad quality and safety, the price could rise toward 10-11 over the next three months.

Primary drivers

Price looks washed out, and investor mood has turned more positive lately
Lower interest rates can lift fast-growing technology stocks this year
Advertisers still need tools to keep ads safe and measure real attention
An ongoing investor investigation could weigh on shares and sentiment

How it played out

IAS: rose 21% but never reached the target

Lyra published IAS at 8.55 on 2025-09-23. The thesis looked for 22% growth over the short-term window, toward 10.42. It pointed to a washed-out price, more positive investor mood, lower interest rates helping fast-growing technology stocks, advertiser demand for ad quality and safety tools, and the risk from an ongoing investor investigation.

Inside the 2025-09-23 to 2025-12-22 window, IAS rose but stayed just below the target. The peak was 10.34 on 2025-12-22, a 21% gain. It also ended at 10.34. The thesis mostly played out, but the target was never reached.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All IAS signals