Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) — closed signal from July 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 8, 2025
The stock dropped 41% after work in Saudi Arabia paused. July then saw far more buying than normal, suggesting the worst selling may be over. U.S. rig rental prices are climbing and management expects the parked rigs to be working again by September. Many traders are betting against the shares, so good news could force them to buy back. A move toward $24 in the next three months is possible, though contract risks remain high.
Primary drivers
- Huge July buying hints the big sell-off is ending
- Rising U.S. rig prices soften the Saudi slowdown hit
- Lots of short sellers could rush to cover on good news
- Shares cost less than the firm’s net assets, giving support
How it played out
HP: target stayed just out of reach
Lyra published HP on July 8, 2025 at 16.95. The thesis expected 45% growth and a move toward 24.02 over the short-term window. It pointed to heavy July buying after a 41% drop, rising U.S. rig prices, possible short covering, and shares priced below the firm's net assets. It also noted that contract risks remained high.
Inside the window, HP rose but did not reach the target. The peak was 23.83 on October 6, 2025, with a 40.6% gain. It ended at 23.46. The published direction was mostly right, but the stated target was missed. It never got there.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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