Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from September 23, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 22, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 23, 2025
TXN's price looks beaten down, so a short-term bounce is possible as tech stocks come back into favor. Returns slipped because the company is spending heavily, but it still leads in chips that manage power, which are needed in electric cars and telecom gear. An outside rating sees TXN as quality on price-to-book growth. Over the next few months, buying in stages makes sense because the trend is still fragile.
Primary drivers
- Price fell a lot recently, and interest from buyers looks stronger
- Dividend and a solid business help limit downside during weak markets
- Growing need for power-control chips in cars and telecom aids demand
- Falling returns from recent heavy spending mean we should be cautious
How it played out
TXN: target was not reached
Lyra published TXN on 2025-09-23 at 179.74 with a short-term thesis for 15% growth toward 204.87. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, stronger buyer interest, dividend support, demand for power-control chips in cars and telecom, and caution because heavy spending had hurt returns.
Inside the 2025-09-23 to 2025-12-22 window, TXN peaked at 185.63 on 2025-09-26, a 3.3% gain. It stayed below the 204.87 target. The stock ended at 178.82. The bounce partly appeared, but the published target did not play out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, Texas Instruments reported third-quarter results and gave fourth-quarter guidance that Investors.com described as below Wall Street expectations. On 2025-12-18, Tom's Hardware reported that Texas Instruments had started production at its Sherman, Texas 300mm wafer fab.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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