Track record · closed signal

Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from September 23, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 22, 2025 — +4.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ONB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$21.63 – $22.61Entry zone — fair-value band

$22.27Published — price the day we called it

$25.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$23.59Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$23.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$23.28

last close inside the window, ended December 22, 2025

Peak price

$23.59

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 23, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$25.67

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$21.63 – $22.61

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$22.27

published September 23, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

ONB looks like a bank stock that fell too far but may be turning. The recent average price is edging up, and more buyers seem active. News highlights interest income up 25.5% over five years, a brief slip below a long-term average that likely shook out sellers, and the sale of Bremer Insurance to focus. If rates ease and loan quality holds, a careful three-month rebound seems doable, though the rate curve still matters.

Primary drivers

Stock looks beaten down now, but the recent average price is turning up
Interest income and core finances look solid and are still improving
Selling non-core unit to focus on core banking and simplify business
Falling interest rates should lower funding costs for regional banks

How it played out

ONB: target was not reached by Dec. 22

Lyra published ONB at $22.27 on Sept. 23, 2025, with 16% expected growth and a short-term target of $25.67. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down bank stock with its recent average price turning up, improving interest income and core finances, the sale of a non-core unit, and lower rates helping regional bank funding costs.

Inside the window, ONB rose, but not enough. The peak was $23.59 on Dec. 22, 2025, for a 5.9% gain. It stayed below the $25.67 target. The window ended at $23.28. The thesis partially played out, but the target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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