Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR) — closed signal from September 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 35 days.
The thesis — published September 22, 2025
Argentina's stock market fell about 12% after political news on 9/13, and BBAR dropped over 20% around 9/8 after analyst downgrades on 9/14. That heavy selling may have gone too far, so if headlines calm, a quick rebound could follow. Consider the $9.25-$9.75 area, but only if the price shows strength and can get above 10.20. This is high risk: sharp swings and currency/policy issues can still hurt in the near term.
Primary drivers
- Dropped sharply in a short span, which can set up a quick rebound
- If mood improves, buyers can return quickly and lift the price
- If Argentina's news and policies calm down, the stock could recover
- Currency swings and policy changes in Argentina can still cause big moves
How it played out
BBAR: target reached in 35 days
Lyra published BBAR at $9.51 on 2025-09-22 with expected growth of 35%. The thesis pointed to heavy selling after political news, a drop of over 20% around 9/8, analyst downgrades on 9/14, and the chance of a quick rebound if headlines calmed. It also flagged sharp swings, currency pressure, and policy risk.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $12.74 target in 35 days. It kept rising and peaked at $18.93 on 2025-12-19, with a peak gain of 99.1%. It ended the window at $18.27. The thesis played out, and the target was exceeded.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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