Track record · closed signal

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) — closed signal from September 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

MCD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$299.51 Published $327.49 Target $315.84 Window close $321.79 Peak
$292.48 – $298.41Entry zone — fair-value band
$299.51Published — price the day we called it
$327.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$321.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$315.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$321.79
peak on December 18, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$315.84
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 22, 2025 – December 21, 2025

The thesis — published September 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$327.49
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$292.48 – $298.41
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$299.51
published September 22, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

McDonald's looks temporarily out of favor, which can set up a short-term rebound. The company has raised its dividend for 48 years, and plans to open 2,200 new stores in 2025, helping future growth. News noise like talk of an India boycott is a risk, but value deals and strong digital ordering/delivery keep visits steady. Consider buys near the low end of its recent range, aiming for a 0-3 month move back toward recent average prices.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down; sellers seem tired, setting up a possible rebound.
  • 48 years of dividend raises add stability and attract long-term investors.
  • Opening 2,200 stores in 2025 points to steady, company-led growth ahead.
  • Low-price promos and strong app/delivery help keep customer traffic up.

How it played out

MCD: rebound thesis partly played out

Lyra published MCD on 2025-09-22 at 299.51. The thesis expected 10% growth toward 327.49 over a short-term window. It pointed to a beaten-down price, 48 years of dividend raises, 2,200 planned store openings in 2025, and value deals plus app and delivery strength as support for a rebound.

Inside the window, MCD rose, but it did not reach 327.49. The peak was 321.79 on 2025-12-18, a 7.4% gain. It ended the window at 315.84 on 2025-12-21. The direction was right, but the target was missed. The thesis partly played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-05, McDonald's reported third-quarter results. The report said U.S. same-store sales rose 2.4% and global same-store sales rose 3.6%, while adjusted earnings missed analyst estimates.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MCD signals