Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from September 22, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025 — -1.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 32% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 22, 2025
TXN looks set for a short-term bounce toward its recent average price in a well-established chip business. The stock seems tired after a slide, and on 9/18 the dividend rose to $1.42, the 22nd straight yearly raise, which helps steady investor income. Momentum remains soft, so patience helps. Over the next 0-3 months, a move back toward normal levels is plausible as customers work through extra inventory.
Primary drivers
- The drop looks overdone, which often leads to a short-term rebound
- Dividend raised again, 22 years straight, helping support the share price
- Investors stay positive even though price momentum remains soft
- Long-term chip demand from EVs and power systems continues to grow
How it played out
TXN: the target was not reached
Lyra published TXN at $178.77 on 2025-09-22 with a short-term view for 12% growth toward $198.46. The thesis pointed to an overdone drop, a dividend raise to $1.42 on 9/18, the 22nd straight yearly raise, steady investor income, soft momentum, and customers working through extra inventory.
Inside the window from 2025-09-22 to 2025-12-21, TXN rose to $185.63 on 2025-09-26. That was a 3.8% peak gain, but it stayed below $198.46. It ended at $176.29. The thesis partially played out on the bounce, but missed the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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