Track record · closed signal

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) — closed signal from September 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SBH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.60 Published $17.47 Target $15.26 Window close $17.40 Peak
$15.00 – $15.60Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.60Published — price the day we called it
$17.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$17.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$15.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$17.40
peak on November 13, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$15.26
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 22, 2025 – December 21, 2025

The thesis — published September 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$17.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$15.00 – $15.60
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.60
published September 22, 2025
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Sally Beauty looks ready for a short-term bounce. Momentum is low and the recent average price trend is turning up, suggesting repair. The 9/21 DoorDash deal can expand delivery and attract new customers. Interest in the stock is high, but results are mixed, so we prefer buying small dips only after strength appears. In the next 0-3 months, better store sales and digital moves could lift shares gradually.

Primary drivers

  • Stock looks beaten down, while the recent average price trend is improving
  • DoorDash delivery deal can bring in new shoppers and more orders
  • Investor interest is upbeat, which can make buying pullbacks work better
  • Better store sales and online plus delivery efforts could lift results

How it played out

SBH: thesis nearly reached target but missed

Lyra published SBH at $15.60 on 2025-09-22 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-21. The thesis expected 12% growth and a move toward $17.47. It pointed to a beaten-down stock, an improving recent average price trend, the 9/21 DoorDash deal, upbeat investor interest, and possible help from better store sales plus online and delivery efforts.

Inside the window, SBH rose to $17.40 on 2025-11-13, a peak gain of 11.6%. That was close, but it stayed below the target. It ended the window at $15.26. The thesis partially played out, but the target was never reached.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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