Track record · closed signal

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) — closed signal from September 22, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025 — -2.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SBH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.00 – $15.60Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.60Published — price the day we called it

$17.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$17.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$15.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-2.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$15.26

last close inside the window, ended December 21, 2025

Peak price

$17.40

peak on November 13, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$17.47

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.00 – $15.60

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.60

published September 22, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Sally Beauty looks ready for a short-term bounce. Momentum is low and the recent average price trend is turning up, suggesting repair. The 9/21 DoorDash deal can expand delivery and attract new customers. Interest in the stock is high, but results are mixed, so we prefer buying small dips only after strength appears. In the next 0-3 months, better store sales and digital moves could lift shares gradually.

Primary drivers

Stock looks beaten down, while the recent average price trend is improving
DoorDash delivery deal can bring in new shoppers and more orders
Investor interest is upbeat, which can make buying pullbacks work better
Better store sales and online plus delivery efforts could lift results

How it played out

SBH: thesis nearly reached target but missed

Lyra published SBH at $15.60 on 2025-09-22 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-21. The thesis expected 12% growth and a move toward $17.47. It pointed to a beaten-down stock, an improving recent average price trend, the 9/21 DoorDash deal, upbeat investor interest, and possible help from better store sales plus online and delivery efforts.

Inside the window, SBH rose to $17.40 on 2025-11-13, a peak gain of 11.6%. That was close, but it stayed below the target. It ended the window at $15.26. The thesis partially played out, but the target was never reached.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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