Track record · closed signal

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) — closed signal from September 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$37.81 Published $39.76 Target $43.02 Window close $43.78 Peak
$34.38 – $35.71Entry zone — fair-value band
$37.81Published — price the day we called it
$39.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$43.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 59 days.

Peak price
$43.78
peak on November 26, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$43.02
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
59
Window
September 22, 2025 – December 21, 2025

The thesis — published September 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$39.76
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$34.38 – $35.71
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$37.81
published September 22, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Old Republic looks like a sturdy financial stock that may rebound soon. Short-term signals suggest its recent slide could be ending, and its recent average price is starting to firm up. News on 9/21 highlighted a 315% five-year total return plus steady dividends, which keeps interest strong. While it grows slower than some peers, dependable income and discipline could help it rise over the next 0-3 months, especially if it moves back above 41.50.

Primary drivers

  • Long history of strong total returns plus dependable, consistent dividends
  • Short-term signs point to a turn, and the recent average price is steady
  • Investor mood is positive, making pullbacks more attractive to buyers
  • Conservative insurer focused on discipline, helping results stay steady

How it played out

ORI: target reached in 59 days

Lyra published ORI at 37.81 on 2025-09-22 with a short-term view for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to long-term total returns, dependable dividends, short-term signs of a turn, a steadier recent average price, positive investor mood, and conservative underwriting discipline. It also said a move back above 41.50 could help the setup.

Inside the window, ORI reached the 39.76 target in 59 days. The stock peaked at 43.78 on 2025-11-26, with a 15.8% peak gain. It ended the window at 43.02. The published thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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