Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025 — +7.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$32.16 – $33.03Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.48Published — price the day we called it

$36.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 65 days.

At window close

+7.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$36.00

last close inside the window, ended December 21, 2025

Peak price

$37.97

peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$36.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$32.16 – $33.03

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.48

published September 22, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks like a short-term income play backed by a steady dividend and a sector that appears to be thawing. Shares seem sold off, yet the business is solid. On 9/15 the company declared a $0.335 dividend (about 3.9% forward yield). In August, REITs raised $7.94B, more than triple July, pointing to better access to cash. If interest rates calm down, the stock could rebound toward its earlier range in the next 0-3 months; consider adding on pullbacks when buyers show up.

Primary drivers

A steady 3.9% dividend helps anchor the share price and provide income.
Price looks beaten down while the recent average price steadies and firms.
In August, REITs raised much more cash than usual, improving funding.
An aging population should lift demand for senior care properties in the years ahead.

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 65 days

Lyra published CTRE on 2025-09-22 at 33.48 as a short-term income and rebound thesis. It expected 12% growth toward 36.8. The thesis pointed to a 3.9% dividend, a price that looked beaten down, REIT fundraising of 7.94B in August, and longer-term demand for senior care properties.

Inside the window, CTRE reached the target. The stock peaked at 37.97 on 2025-12-04, with a 13.4% peak gain. It reached the target in 65 days. By 2025-12-21, it ended at 36. The published thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals