Sprinklr, Inc. (CXM) — closed signal from September 22, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025 — +0.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 22, 2025
Sprinklr fell hard, but the drop looks overdone and early signs suggest buyers are returning. Q2 sales grew 7.5% and beat expectations by 3.2% (9/15). Plan: consider buying around $7.30-$7.80, then adding only if it clears $8.30 and interest improves. Over the next 0-3 months, reopened budgets, better profits, and a calmer mood could help the price rebound.
Primary drivers
- Price looks washed out, and buying interest is starting to pick up
- Quarter showed 7.5% sales growth and a 3.2% beat, profits improving
- Investor mood stays fairly positive even after the recent drop
- Many companies unlock software budgets soon, helping near-term sales
How it played out
CXM: rebound started, but the target was missed
On September 22, Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis on CXM at $7.81. It expected 25% growth. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price, buying interest starting to pick up, Q2 sales growth of 7.5%, a 3.2% beat, improving profits, fairly positive investor mood, and possible software budget reopening over the next 0-3 months.
Inside the window, CXM rose, but not enough. It peaked at $8.21 on December 10, with a 5.1% gain. It never reached the $9.76 target. The stock ended the window at $7.84. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed on magnitude.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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