Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 21, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$175.91 Published $219.87 Target $180.99 Window close $212.18 Peak
$169.98 – $175.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$175.91Published — price the day we called it
$219.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$180.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$180.99
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 22, 2025 – December 21, 2025

The thesis — published September 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$219.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$169.98 – $175.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$175.91
published September 22, 2025
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a leading name in AI. Recent news shows momentum: a new AI and robotics lab with Abu Dhabi's TII broadens its reach, and Iren's growing AI cloud points to strong demand. Buying interest looks stronger than usual and the trend points up, supporting a 0-3 month view. Consider entries around $170-$176, and a strong move above $181 can confirm the run. A seasonally upbeat market can add extra lift to fast-moving names.

Primary drivers

  • New UAE lab with TII widens NVIDIA's reach and deepens its AI footprint.
  • Buyer interest is strong, and recent price trends are pointing upward.
  • Investor mood and business results both look healthy for near-term gains.
  • Seasonal investor optimism can lift fast-moving shares more than the market.

How it played out

NVDA: target missed after a 20.6% peak gain

Lyra published NVDA at $175.91 on 2025-09-22 with a short-term call for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's artificial intelligence and robotics lab with Abu Dhabi's TII, demand from Iren's artificial intelligence cloud, stronger than usual buying interest, an upward trend, healthy investor mood and business results, and seasonal optimism.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to $212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 20.6% peak gain. That stayed below the $219.87 target, so it never got there. The stock ended at $180.99 on 2025-12-21. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-22, NVIDIA and OpenAI announced a partnership tied to at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems. On 2025-11-19, NVIDIA reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $57 billion and guided to $65 billion for the next quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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