MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) — closed signal from September 21, 2025
Missed Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 20, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Never rose above the publication price inside the window.
The thesis — published September 21, 2025
MINISO looks interesting because the price seems beaten down while opinions about it are turning more positive, and the business itself is solid. Some ratings lean Buy, while others worry about recent earnings swings. If execution holds and the price climbs back above its recent average price and $26, it could start a 3-month recovery as new stores open worldwide and smart pricing supports profits.
Primary drivers
- Well-known brand with steady expansion in store count and sales across regions.
- Mixed views: some say Buy, others cautious due to recent earnings ups and downs.
- Shares may be priced below what the business could fairly be worth today.
- Recent pullback could rebound if buyers return and sentiment keeps improving.
How it played out
MNSO: the target was not reached
Lyra published MNSO at 25.05 on 2025-09-21 with an 18% expected gain and a 29.56 target. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, improving opinion, a solid business, new stores worldwide, and pricing support. It also noted mixed views, with some leaning Buy and others cautious after recent earnings swings.
Inside the window from 2025-09-21 to 2025-12-20, MNSO peaked at 25.02 on 2025-09-22. That was a -0.1% peak gain, so it stayed below the target. It ended at 19.61. The published thesis did not play out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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