Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 21, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 20, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$176.66 Published $213.75 Target $180.99 Window close $212.18 Peak
$173.98 – $176.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$176.66Published — price the day we called it
$213.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$180.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$180.99
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 21, 2025 – December 20, 2025

The thesis — published September 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+21%
over the measurement window
Target price
$213.75
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$173.98 – $176.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$176.66
published September 21, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA looks like it is stabilizing while demand for AI gear stays strong. Recent coverage points to a new push to build AI infrastructure, new stock listings, and partners like CoreWeave growing fast. There is lots more buying than usual, suggesting a controlled turn upward. The stock is pricey, but it may keep leading as companies lift AI budgets. A close above 182 could confirm the next 3 month move.

Primary drivers

  • Companies are raising AI spending and keeping hardware orders strong
  • Buying interest is picking up, pointing to a steady, healthy turn
  • Partners like CoreWeave are growing fast, lifting the wider AI network
  • Likely to stay a leader as money shifts toward AI-focused winners

How it played out

NVDA: peak stayed below the target

Lyra published NVDA at 176.66 on 2025-09-21 with expected growth of 21%. The thesis pointed to strong demand for artificial intelligence gear, rising hardware orders, heavier buying interest, fast growth at partners like CoreWeave, and a possible confirmation if the stock closed above 182.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 20.1% gain. The target was 213.75, and the stock never reached it. It ended the window at 180.99. The thesis mostly played out on direction and size, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On November 19, 2025, Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57.01 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.30. The company also reported data center revenue of $51.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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