Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 20, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$32.74 – $33.22Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.70Published — price the day we called it

$38.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$37.97

peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+12.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$36.00

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 21, 2025 – December 20, 2025

The thesis — published September 21, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$38.36

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$32.74 – $33.22

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.70

published September 21, 2025

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks set for a rebound helped by lower interest rates, which cut its borrowing costs, and a big jump in REIT fundraising in August, giving it more cash to buy properties. Recent news suggests the stock may be about 41.2% below what it is worth. The sector has been weak, creating an opening. With steady healthcare rent payments and improving sentiment, the next few months could bring a gradual, reliable climb in total return.

Primary drivers

Rate cuts reduce borrowing costs, helping new deals and boosting profits.
Healthcare tenants usually keep paying, making rental income steadier.
More money raised by REITs means easier funding for purchases and growth.
If about 41% below value, closing that shortfall could lift returns.

How it played out

CTRE: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published CTRE at $33.70 on 2025-09-21 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to lower interest rates, steadier healthcare rent payments, stronger REIT fundraising, and a stock described as about 41.2% below what it was worth. It expected a gradual climb over the short-term window.

Inside the window, CTRE rose but did not reach the $38.36 target. The peak was $37.97 on 2025-12-04, with a peak gain of 12.7%. It never got there. By 2025-12-20, it ended at $36. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals