MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) — closed signal from September 20, 2025
Missed Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Never rose above the publication price inside the window.
The thesis — published September 20, 2025
MINISO looks appealing because the business is growing while the stock still seems fairly priced. Sales and profit per share are rising, and the valuation is lower than many peers. After a recent pullback, the recent average price is edging up, which can set up a short, 3-month trade. China consumer trends and currency swings are real risks, so we want momentum to steady and then add as the trend improves.
Primary drivers
- Opening more stores and lifting sales as new locations ramp up steadily
- Good growth at a fair price based on earnings and sales progress
- Recent average price rising after a pullback that looks overdone
- Analyst opinions are mixed, which keeps expectations in check
How it played out
MNSO: the 20% target was not reached
On 2025-09-20, Lyra published a short-term MNSO thesis at 25.05. It expected 20% growth, with a target of 30.06. The thesis pointed to more stores, rising sales as new locations ramped, earnings and sales progress at a fair price, a recent average price rising after a pullback, and mixed analyst views that kept expectations in check.
Inside the window, MNSO peaked at 25.02 on 2025-09-22. That peak was still below the publication price, with a peak gain of -0.1%, and it never reached 30.06. The stock ended at 19.61. The thesis missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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