Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from September 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 20, 2025
Palantir is a well-liked AI software name. A reported U.S. Army deal up to $10B and sales up 48% versus last year show strong demand even though the stock looks expensive. The trend is up with lots more people buying than usual, so we prefer buying on dips instead of after fast runs. Over the next 1-3 months, defense and business wins could help, but a high price and sharp swings mean we stay cautious and keep it on Watch.
Primary drivers
- Potential long U.S. Army contract and fast sales growth support demand
- Uptrend with heavier trading shows strong and steady buyer interest
- Businesses are adopting AI tools, growing Palantir's potential customer base
- Rich price means be patient and choose entries carefully to manage risk
How it played out
PLTR: target was not reached
Lyra published PLTR on 2025-09-20 at 182.39 with a short-term thesis for 35% growth. The thesis pointed to a possible long U.S. Army contract, 48% sales growth versus last year, heavier trading, business adoption of artificial intelligence tools, and caution around a rich price and sharp swings.
Inside the window from 2025-09-20 to 2025-12-19, PLTR rose to a peak of 207.52 on 2025-11-03, a 13.8% gain. It stayed below the 246.23 target. The window ended at 193.38. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose, but it never reached the published target.
What happened during the window
On November 3, 2025, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63% year over year. On November 14, 2025, Palantir announced that its listing would move from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq Global Select Market effective November 26, 2025.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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