MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT) — closed signal from July 8, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 8, 2025
The company spent $175 million to buy back its own shares, cutting rival Trip.com’s ownership to 17%. With fewer shares around, each one can claim a bigger share of profits and management shows real confidence. Macquarie’s new positive rating and very strong investor mood add fuel. After a brief pause in price, we see a chance to buy before record Indian travel demand pushes the stock higher over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Big share buyback lifts earnings per share and signals belief in the company.
- Fresh upgrade and new fund buying send investor mood near its highest level.
- Strong price and trading activity show buyers still in control despite pause.
- Record flight and hotel bookings in India should boost sales in coming months.
How it played out
MMYT: target was not reached by window end
Lyra published MMYT at $95.65 on 2025-07-08. The thesis expected 25% growth over a short-term window. It pointed to a $175 million share buyback, lower Trip.com ownership at 17%, a fresh positive rating, strong investor mood, firm price action, and record Indian flight and hotel bookings.
Inside the window, the stock rose to a $104.99 peak on 2025-07-23, a 9.8% gain. It stayed below the $119.56 target. By 2025-10-06, it ended at $95.08. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-07, MakeMyTrip launched a multilingual trip planning assistant for conversational bookings. It supported Hindi and English at launch. This was an announcement during the window, not an explanation for the stock move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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