Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 20, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 19, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$176.66 Published $229.65 Target $180.99 Window close $212.18 Peak
$168.98 – $173.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$176.66Published — price the day we called it
$229.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$180.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 67% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$180.99
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 20, 2025 – December 19, 2025

The thesis — published September 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$229.65
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$168.98 – $173.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$176.66
published September 20, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVDA leads in chips that power AI. Big customers keep spending, and a friendly market helps well-known AI names. Recent price moves and news suggest steady demand, and major banks are raising their targets across the group. Expect normal ups and downs; consider buying on dips while tracking supply, pricing, and rivals. The next 1-3 months look favorable if AI orders stay strong and interest in AI stays high.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing heavy AI spending by the largest tech firms and big companies
  • Price trend looks positive; recent average price and demand stay firm
  • Solid business results and strong demand across partners and customers
  • A confident market mood is steering money toward top AI winners

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $176.66 on 2025-09-20 with a short-term view for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to heavy artificial intelligence spending by the largest tech firms and big companies, firm demand, solid business results, a positive price trend, and a confident market mood around leading artificial intelligence names.

Inside the window, NVDA peaked at $212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 20.1% gain. It stayed below the $229.65 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-19, it ended at $180.99. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-22, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a strategic partnership tied to at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems. On 2025-11-19, Nvidia reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $57.006 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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