Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 19, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.70 Published $37.36 Target $36.00 Window close $37.97 Peak
$32.26 – $33.22Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.70Published — price the day we called it
$37.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$37.97
peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$36.00
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 20, 2025 – December 19, 2025

The thesis — published September 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.26 – $33.22
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.70
published September 20, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust is an income play with a near-term recovery into Q4. The price dropped lately, but the business and investor mood look solid. The industry raised much more money in August (up 243%), giving REITs more cash for deals. A $0.335 dividend is set, and easing interest rates can help values. We expect a quiet base then a rebound over about three months, while watching facility partners and payment rates from insurers and government.

Primary drivers

  • Share price looks washed out, and recent average price trends are improving
  • A recent $0.335 dividend supports returns while investors wait for upside
  • In August, similar REITs raised far more cash, making future deals easier
  • Flat or lower interest rates often make REITs more valuable to investors

How it played out

CTRE: target reached inside the window

Lyra published CTRE at $33.70 on 2025-09-20 as a short-term income and recovery setup. The thesis expected 13% growth and pointed to a recent $0.335 dividend, better recent price trends, industry fundraising up 243% in August, and flat or lower interest rates as support for REIT values.

Inside the 2025-09-20 to 2025-12-19 window, CTRE rose to a peak of $37.97 on 2025-12-04, above the $37.36 target. The recorded peak gain was 12.7%. It ended the window at $36. The thesis largely played out, though the close stayed below the peak.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals