Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from September 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 15% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 20, 2025
Uber is earning more money from rides and deliveries, and it is bringing in steady cash. The company plans to link with Joby Aviation so people can book future short air trips inside Uber, which creates a new way to grow. Lately there has been lots more buying than usual, so small dips in price can be chances to enter. Over the next 1-3 months we expect the climb to continue, while watching rules changes, price wars, and shifting investor preferences.
Primary drivers
- Profits and cash are improving across rides and deliveries globally
- Price trend is strong, with recent buying much heavier than usual
- Working with Joby could add future short air trips to the Uber app
- Healthy risk appetite in markets is lifting demand for Uber services
How it played out
UBER: target was never reached
Lyra published UBER at $98.51 on 2025-09-20 with expected growth of 24%. The thesis pointed to improving profits and cash across rides and deliveries, a strong price trend with heavier buying, the Joby link for future short air trips inside Uber, and healthy market risk appetite.
Inside the window, UBER peaked at $101.99 on 2025-09-22, a 3.5% gain. It stayed below the $122.15 target. By 2025-12-19, it ended at $79.31. The thesis only partly played out in the first move, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On November 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter trips of 3.5 billion, up 22%, and gross bookings of $49.7 billion, up 21%. The company also forecast fourth-quarter gross bookings of $52.25 billion to $53.75 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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