Track record · closed signal

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025 — -2.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TXN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$176.83 – $178.79Entry zone — fair-value band

$180.00Published — price the day we called it

$206.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$185.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$176.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 19% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$176.19

last close inside the window, ended December 18, 2025

Peak price

$185.63

peak on September 26, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$206.96

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$176.83 – $178.79

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$180.00

published September 19, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TXN looks like it could bounce after a sharp drop, but the trend is still down, so patience helps. Investor mood is decent, and a 22nd straight dividend raise shows strong finances. A new China investigation into U.S. analog chips is a real risk. Consider starting near 180-182, then add only if the price climbs back above 186 or if buyers clearly start taking control as the analog chip market steadies.

Primary drivers

Stock fell hard and may rebound soon; investor mood is still positive.
The 22nd dividend raise points to solid cash and leadership confidence.
Analog chip demand may be near a bottom and could level out.
China's anti-dumping probe adds headline and sales uncertainty.

How it played out

TXN: target was not reached

Lyra published TXN at $180 on 2025-09-19 with a short-term thesis for 16% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a possible rebound after a sharp drop, decent investor mood, a 22nd straight dividend raise, analog chip demand that may have been near a bottom, and risk from China's anti-dumping probe.

Inside the window from 2025-09-19 to 2025-12-18, TXN peaked at $185.63 on 2025-09-26, a 3.1% gain. It stayed below the $206.96 target and ended at $176.19. The thesis partially played out in the first week, but it did not reach the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TXN signals