Track record · closed signal

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

FOUR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$86.75 Published $108.44 Target $64.43 Window close $87.69 Peak
$86.00 – $87.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$86.75Published — price the day we called it
$108.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$87.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$64.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 4% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$87.69
peak on September 19, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$64.43
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 19, 2025 – December 18, 2025

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$108.44
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$86.00 – $87.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$86.75
published September 19, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock looks beaten down but ready to turn up. A recent shift in momentum and very positive investor mood hint at a change, but we want to see heavier trading to back it up. Recent research says it looks cheaper than some rivals, adding appeal even with light trading now. Buying around 86-87, then adding if it holds above 90, aims to catch a rebound as payment activity and new markets pick up.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down, with a new upswing in momentum suggesting a turn
  • Very strong investor mood points to better odds of a bounce back soon
  • Recent research says it looks cheaper than peers, pointing to room to rise
  • Winning more customers in new industries could lift sales and profits

How it played out

FOUR: target was not reached

Lyra published FOUR at $86.75 on 2025-09-19 with a short-term thesis for 25% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, a new upswing in momentum, very strong investor mood, cheaper valuation versus peers, and the chance that more customers in new industries could lift sales and profits.

Inside the window from 2025-09-19 to 2025-12-18, the stock peaked at $87.69 on 2025-09-19, a 1.1% gain. It stayed below the $108.44 target and ended at $64.43. The rebound thesis missed. The stock rose only briefly, then finished well below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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