Track record · closed signal

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$139.40 Published $151.85 Target $149.37 Window close $153.69 Peak
$136.32 – $139.26Entry zone — fair-value band
$139.40Published — price the day we called it
$151.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$153.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$149.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 32 days.

Peak price
$153.69
peak on October 21, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$149.37
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
32
Window
September 19, 2025 – December 18, 2025

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$151.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$136.32 – $139.26
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$139.40
published September 19, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

PepsiCo's stock fell more than seems reasonable, so buyers may step back in. Investors still feel positive, and the company has raised its dividend 52 years in a row, which draws income-focused buyers. Lower interest rates help steady, essential brands. Plan: consider buying around $139-$142 after it steadies, and look to take some profits near $149-$154 as prices calm and the sector adjusts.

Primary drivers

  • Share price looks overly beaten down, yet investor mood remains supportive.
  • 52 straight dividend raises can attract buyers who want steady income.
  • Falling rates often make reliable consumer brands more attractive to own.
  • After a sharp drop, price may drift back toward a common selling area.

How it played out

PEP: target reached in 32 days

Lyra published PEP at $139.40 on 2025-09-19, with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked overly beaten down, supportive investor mood, 52 straight dividend raises, falling rates, and a possible move back toward a common selling area near $149-$154.

Inside the window, PEP reached the $151.85 target in 32 days. It peaked at $153.69 on 2025-10-21, with a peak gain of 10.3%. It ended the window at $149.37. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On October 9, 2025, PepsiCo reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.29 per share on revenue of $23.94 billion. The same day, PepsiCo said Steve Schmitt would become chief financial officer on November 10, 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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