Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$96.78 Published $116.14 Target $79.69 Window close $101.99 Peak
$95.00 – $97.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$96.78Published — price the day we called it
$116.14Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$101.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$79.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$101.99
peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$79.69
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 19, 2025 – December 18, 2025

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$116.14
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$95.00 – $97.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$96.78
published September 19, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks ready for a move because buying interest is picking up and the price still has room to run toward $100. This week it started a Flytrex drone delivery test, which can make Uber Eats faster and strengthen its push into automated delivery. Big investors seem active, which can steady the stock. The business is broad (rides, food, freight), so results are less dependent on one line. Consider entries near $95-97, then confirmation if it moves over $100.

Primary drivers

  • More buyers than sellers lately, and trading activity is higher than usual
  • New drone test could speed deliveries and widen Uber Eats service areas
  • Multiple businesses (rides, food, freight) help growth feel more durable
  • A firm move above $100 could attract fresh interest and extend momentum

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at $96.78 on September 19, 2025, with expected growth of 20%. The target was $116.14. The thesis pointed to stronger buying interest, higher trading activity, a Flytrex drone delivery test for Uber Eats, a broader business mix across rides, food, and freight, and possible confirmation if the stock moved over $100.

Inside the window, UBER did move over $100. It peaked at $101.99 on September 22, 2025, for a 5.4% gain, but it never reached $116.14. By December 18, 2025, it ended at $79.69. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On November 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter results, with trips at 3.5 billion and gross bookings at $49.7 billion. On November 26, 2025, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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