Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from July 8, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2025 — -1.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$68.51 – $68.99Entry zone — fair-value band

$70.44Published — price the day we called it

$77.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$73.90Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$69.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-1.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$69.47

last close inside the window, ended October 6, 2025

Peak price

$73.90

peak on August 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$77.91

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$68.51 – $68.99

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$70.44

published July 8, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

ADC's stock has dropped to a level that rarely happens, even though opinions about the company are extremely positive. After twelve straight years of raising its monthly dividend and posting stronger cash flow last quarter, the company looks attractive to investors who want income. With another earnings report due on July 31 and interest rates calming down, many expect the price to bounce back over the next three months.

Primary drivers

Price has sunk to an extremely rare low that often snaps back in the short term.
Investor surveys show very strong interest in reliable dividend payers like ADC.
Twelve years of rising dividends and better-than-expected cash flow show solid health.
Results on July 31 and a calmer interest-rate outlook could spark a summer rebound.

How it played out

ADC: the thesis rose but missed the target

Lyra published ADC at $70.44 on July 8, 2025, with an expected gain of 13%. The thesis pointed to a rare price drop, strong investor interest in reliable dividend payers, twelve years of rising monthly dividends, stronger cash flow last quarter, results due on July 31, and a calmer interest-rate outlook.

Inside the window from July 8 to October 6, 2025, ADC peaked at $73.90 on August 4. That was a 4.9% gain, but it stayed below the $77.91 target. The target was never reached. ADC ended at $69.47. The thesis partially played out, but it missed its full price goal.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ADC signals