Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$489.13 Published $533.15 Target $499.25 Window close $507.66 Peak
$480.00 – $489.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$489.13Published — price the day we called it
$533.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$507.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$499.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 42% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$507.66
peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$499.25
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 1, 2025 – September 29, 2025

The thesis — published July 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$533.15
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$480.00 – $489.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$489.13
published July 1, 2025
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Berkshire’s stock is close to its highest price ever. Many more buyers than usual have been stepping in as investors prepare for the day Warren Buffett may hand over the reins at year-end and study his newest moves-selling part of the Bank of America stake while picking up SiriusXM. A mountain of insurance cash and dependable railroad income act like a safety net, so easing in around $485 seeks a calm, single-digit gain by early October.

Primary drivers

  • Steady buying at record prices shows confidence before upcoming leadership change.
  • Top investor mood signals faith that Berkshire can thrive even after Buffett retires.
  • Massive insurance cash and $189 b in hand help protect earnings from economic shocks.
  • Recent trades in SiriusXM and Bank of America put Berkshire back in the financial headlines.

How it played out

BRK-B: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published BRK-B at $489.13 on 2025-07-01 with an expected gain of 9% by 2025-09-29. The thesis pointed to steady buying near record prices before an upcoming leadership change, investor faith after Buffett, $189 b in cash, insurance strength, railroad income, and recent SiriusXM and Bank of America trades.

Inside the window, BRK-B rose, but it did not reach the $533.15 target. The peak was $507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 3.8% gain. It ended at $499.25. The thesis partly played out because the stock finished above publication price, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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