Track record · closed signal

Shell plc (SHEL) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025 — +1.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHEL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$69.18 – $69.67Entry zone — fair-value band

$70.18Published — price the day we called it

$77.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$76.74Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$71.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+1.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$71.31

last close inside the window, ended December 18, 2025

Peak price

$76.74

peak on November 11, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$77.86

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$69.18 – $69.67

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$70.18

published September 19, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shell's share price has fallen fast and may bounce back, which can offer a short-term opportunity in a strong, cash-making company. Fresh news helps: a 15-year U.S. natural-gas deal should steady future cash, and new exploration work in Sao Tome could add value later. Aim to buy if the price steadies around 70.5-71, then consider taking profits around 74-77 as the overall oil and gas market calms.

Primary drivers

Sharp recent drop raises chances of a quick bounce in the share price
15-year U.S. gas deal makes future cash easier to predict
Buybacks and many businesses keep money coming from multiple sources
Exploration progress may add future projects and income options

How it played out

SHEL: the bounce fell short of the target

Lyra published SHEL on 2025-09-19 at 70.18 as a short-term rebound setup. The thesis expected 12% growth and pointed to a sharp recent drop, a 15-year U.S. gas deal, buybacks, several cash sources, and exploration progress as reasons the stock could recover.

Inside the window, SHEL rose to a peak of 76.74 on 2025-11-11, a 9.3% gain. That stayed below the 77.86 target, so it never got there. By 2025-12-18, the stock ended at 71.31. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-30, Shell reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.4 billion and said it would continue a $3.5 billion buyback. The same day, coverage said production reached new highs in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SHEL signals