Track record · closed signal

Shell plc (SHEL) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHEL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$70.18 Published $77.86 Target $71.31 Window close $76.74 Peak
$69.18 – $69.67Entry zone — fair-value band
$70.18Published — price the day we called it
$77.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$76.74Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$71.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$76.74
peak on November 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$71.31
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 19, 2025 – December 18, 2025

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$77.86
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$69.18 – $69.67
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$70.18
published September 19, 2025
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shell's share price has fallen fast and may bounce back, which can offer a short-term opportunity in a strong, cash-making company. Fresh news helps: a 15-year U.S. natural-gas deal should steady future cash, and new exploration work in Sao Tome could add value later. Aim to buy if the price steadies around 70.5-71, then consider taking profits around 74-77 as the overall oil and gas market calms.

Primary drivers

  • Sharp recent drop raises chances of a quick bounce in the share price
  • 15-year U.S. gas deal makes future cash easier to predict
  • Buybacks and many businesses keep money coming from multiple sources
  • Exploration progress may add future projects and income options

How it played out

SHEL: the bounce fell short of the target

Lyra published SHEL on 2025-09-19 at 70.18 as a short-term rebound setup. The thesis expected 12% growth and pointed to a sharp recent drop, a 15-year U.S. gas deal, buybacks, several cash sources, and exploration progress as reasons the stock could recover.

Inside the window, SHEL rose to a peak of 76.74 on 2025-11-11, a 9.3% gain. That stayed below the 77.86 target, so it never got there. By 2025-12-18, the stock ended at 71.31. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-30, Shell reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.4 billion and said it would continue a $3.5 billion buyback. The same day, coverage said production reached new highs in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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