Track record · closed signal

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025 — +15.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NEE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$69.06 – $70.05Entry zone — fair-value band

$70.19Published — price the day we called it

$78.08Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$86.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$80.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close

+15.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+23.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$80.85

last close inside the window, ended December 18, 2025

Peak price

$86.94

peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$78.08

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$69.06 – $70.05

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$70.19

published September 19, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NEE looks like a steady utility that could rebound if interest rates calm down. The stock has slipped enough that a snap-back is realistic, and investor mood is improving. UBS just repeated a Buy with an $84 goal after solid results, which helps set a price floor. Plan to buy near $70-$71 once the price steadies, aiming for the high-$70s to $80, while keeping risks tight as the recent average price trend and project visibility improve.

Primary drivers

Stock has fallen a lot; utility traits can cushion rough markets
UBS repeated a Buy rating with an $84 target after recent news
Large wind and solar projects lined up to drive future growth
If interest rates ease after Fed moves, the stock can benefit

How it played out

NEE: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published NEE on 2025-09-19 at $70.19, with 12% expected growth and a $78.08 target. The thesis pointed to a fallen utility stock, a UBS Buy rating with an $84 target, large wind and solar projects, and possible help if interest rates eased after Fed moves.

Inside the window, NEE reached the target in 14 days. It peaked at $86.94 on 2025-10-28, with a 23.9% peak gain. By 2025-12-18, it ended at $80.85, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-08, NextEra announced agreements with Google and Meta tied to data-center energy needs, and it raised its adjusted earnings outlook. Barron's also reported on 2025-12-08 that Meta would receive about 2.5 gigawatts from solar and battery-storage projects, while NextEra was developing at least three large data centers with Google.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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