Track record · closed signal

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NEE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$70.19 Published $78.08 Target $80.85 Window close $86.94 Peak
$69.06 – $70.05Entry zone — fair-value band
$70.19Published — price the day we called it
$78.08Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$86.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$80.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

Peak price
$86.94
peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$80.85
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
14
Window
September 19, 2025 – December 18, 2025

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$78.08
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$69.06 – $70.05
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$70.19
published September 19, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NEE looks like a steady utility that could rebound if interest rates calm down. The stock has slipped enough that a snap-back is realistic, and investor mood is improving. UBS just repeated a Buy with an $84 goal after solid results, which helps set a price floor. Plan to buy near $70-$71 once the price steadies, aiming for the high-$70s to $80, while keeping risks tight as the recent average price trend and project visibility improve.

Primary drivers

  • Stock has fallen a lot; utility traits can cushion rough markets
  • UBS repeated a Buy rating with an $84 target after recent news
  • Large wind and solar projects lined up to drive future growth
  • If interest rates ease after Fed moves, the stock can benefit

How it played out

NEE: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published NEE on 2025-09-19 at $70.19, with 12% expected growth and a $78.08 target. The thesis pointed to a fallen utility stock, a UBS Buy rating with an $84 target, large wind and solar projects, and possible help if interest rates eased after Fed moves.

Inside the window, NEE reached the target in 14 days. It peaked at $86.94 on 2025-10-28, with a 23.9% peak gain. By 2025-12-18, it ended at $80.85, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-08, NextEra announced agreements with Google and Meta tied to data-center energy needs, and it raised its adjusted earnings outlook. Barron's also reported on 2025-12-08 that Meta would receive about 2.5 gigawatts from solar and battery-storage projects, while NextEra was developing at least three large data centers with Google.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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