Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from September 19, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 45% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 19, 2025
This looks ready to get back on its upward path. Investor mood is very strong, the price recently looked a bit weak but is starting to firm up, and the recent average price is turning higher with more trading than usual. The stock jumped 5.8% in a day and is up 71% this year. Profits are expected to grow about 20% next quarter as AI data centers order more gear. Consider dips near 145-149, and a firm move above 155 to avoid false starts.
Primary drivers
- AI-focused data centers need more Arista gear, boosting orders into 2025
- Price looked soft recently, but buying interest and trading volume are rising
- Big year-to-date gains and likely profit growth point to ongoing demand
- Top-tier results can attract ongoing investment from large funds
How it played out
ANET: target was not reached
Lyra published ANET at $148.21 on 2025-09-19, with 25% expected growth and a $185.26 target. The thesis pointed to strong investor mood, a price that had started to firm up after weakness, rising average price and trading volume, a 5.8% one-day jump, 71% gains for the year, about 20% expected profit growth next quarter, and artificial intelligence data-center demand.
Inside the window, ANET peaked at $164.94 on 2025-10-30, a 11.3% gain. It stayed below the $185.26 target, so there was no day to target. The stock ended at $124.62 on 2025-12-18. The thesis partially played out early, then missed.
What happened during the window
On November 4, 2025, Arista reported third-quarter results. Investors.com said adjusted earnings rose 25% to $0.75 per share and revenue rose 27% to $2.308 billion. On November 5, 2025, Barron's reported that the stock fell after those results, despite earnings and revenue coming in above estimates.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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