Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from September 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025 — -15.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$145.00 – $149.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$148.21Published — price the day we called it

$185.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$164.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$124.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 45% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-15.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$124.62

last close inside the window, ended December 18, 2025

Peak price

$164.94

peak on October 30, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 19, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$185.26

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$145.00 – $149.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$148.21

published September 19, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This looks ready to get back on its upward path. Investor mood is very strong, the price recently looked a bit weak but is starting to firm up, and the recent average price is turning higher with more trading than usual. The stock jumped 5.8% in a day and is up 71% this year. Profits are expected to grow about 20% next quarter as AI data centers order more gear. Consider dips near 145-149, and a firm move above 155 to avoid false starts.

Primary drivers

AI-focused data centers need more Arista gear, boosting orders into 2025
Price looked soft recently, but buying interest and trading volume are rising
Big year-to-date gains and likely profit growth point to ongoing demand
Top-tier results can attract ongoing investment from large funds

How it played out

ANET: target was not reached

Lyra published ANET at $148.21 on 2025-09-19, with 25% expected growth and a $185.26 target. The thesis pointed to strong investor mood, a price that had started to firm up after weakness, rising average price and trading volume, a 5.8% one-day jump, 71% gains for the year, about 20% expected profit growth next quarter, and artificial intelligence data-center demand.

Inside the window, ANET peaked at $164.94 on 2025-10-30, a 11.3% gain. It stayed below the $185.26 target, so there was no day to target. The stock ended at $124.62 on 2025-12-18. The thesis partially played out early, then missed.

What happened during the window

On November 4, 2025, Arista reported third-quarter results. Investors.com said adjusted earnings rose 25% to $0.75 per share and revenue rose 27% to $2.308 billion. On November 5, 2025, Barron's reported that the stock fell after those results, despite earnings and revenue coming in above estimates.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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