The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from September 19, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025 — +4.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 19, 2025
The stock looks ready for a short-term recovery in a strong, well-known business. Recent buying interest appears to be improving, suggesting the price may steady rather than keep sliding. Results were solid: Q2 sales rose 24.8% compared to last year. The company plans 16 new branches and 25 expansions. With many large investors on board, buying around $92.50-$94.00 could aim for a move toward $99-$104.
Primary drivers
- Short-term price looks washed out, raising odds of a near-term rebound
- New branches and hiring signal the company is investing to grow
- Q2 results were strong, with sales up 24.8% compared to last year
- Many large investors own shares, which tends to steady the stock
How it played out
SCHW: target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW on 2025-09-19 at 93.07 with a short-term recovery thesis and 14% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a washed-out short-term price, new branches and hiring, Q2 sales up 24.8% compared to last year, and large investor ownership as factors that could help steady the stock.
Inside the window from 2025-09-19 to 2025-12-18, SCHW rose but stayed below the 105.79 target. Its peak was 98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 5.5% gain. It ended at 97.23. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-06, Charles Schwab announced plans to buy Forge Global in a deal valued at about $660 million. Barron's reported the same day that Schwab would pay $45 per share in cash and that the transaction was expected to close in the first half of 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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