The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from September 19, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 19, 2025
The stock looks ready for a short-term recovery in a strong, well-known business. Recent buying interest appears to be improving, suggesting the price may steady rather than keep sliding. Results were solid: Q2 sales rose 24.8% compared to last year. The company plans 16 new branches and 25 expansions. With many large investors on board, buying around $92.50-$94.00 could aim for a move toward $99-$104.
Primary drivers
- Short-term price looks washed out, raising odds of a near-term rebound
- New branches and hiring signal the company is investing to grow
- Q2 results were strong, with sales up 24.8% compared to last year
- Many large investors own shares, which tends to steady the stock
How it played out
SCHW: target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW on 2025-09-19 at 93.07 with a short-term recovery thesis and 14% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a washed-out short-term price, new branches and hiring, Q2 sales up 24.8% compared to last year, and large investor ownership as factors that could help steady the stock.
Inside the window from 2025-09-19 to 2025-12-18, SCHW rose but stayed below the 105.79 target. Its peak was 98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 5.5% gain. It ended at 97.23. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-06, Charles Schwab announced plans to buy Forge Global in a deal valued at about $660 million. Barron's reported the same day that Schwab would pay $45 per share in cash and that the transaction was expected to close in the first half of 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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