Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from September 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$92.07 Published $105.58 Target $96.61 Window close $98.22 Peak
$89.49 – $91.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$92.07Published — price the day we called it
$105.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$98.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$96.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 45% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$98.22
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$96.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 18, 2025 – December 17, 2025

The thesis — published September 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$105.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$89.49 – $91.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$92.07
published September 18, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks ready for a short-term bounce as buying interest improves. The company is opening 16 new branches and adding 400 roles, showing investment to win more clients and assets. If interest rates calm down, clients tend to move more money and trade more. Consider buying near $90-$92.50, then add if price rises above its recent average price, aiming for a 1 to 3 month recovery.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down, making a short-term bounce more likely soon
  • Opening 16 branches and hiring 400 signals confidence and growth plans
  • If interest rates calm down, clients typically move more cash and trade more
  • Improving mood among investors means more buyers than sellers lately

How it played out

SCHW: rose 6.7% but missed the target

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-09-18 at 92.07 as a short-term bounce setup with 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to improving buying interest, a beaten-down price, 16 new branches, 400 added roles, calmer interest rates, and better investor mood as reasons the stock could recover over 1 to 3 months.

Inside the 2025-09-18 to 2025-12-17 window, SCHW rose but did not reach 105.58. The peak was 98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 6.7% gain. It ended at 96.61. The direction was right, but the target was missed. This was a partial play-out, not a full hit.

What happened during the window

On November 6, 2025, Charles Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global in a transaction valued at about $660 million. On November 7, 2025, Barron's reported that Schwab expanded its Advisor ProDirect program to existing registered investment advisors.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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