Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from September 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 17, 2025 — +22.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$126.16 Published $160.91 Target $154.98 Window close $169.69 Peak
$121.91 – $125.89Entry zone — fair-value band
$126.16Published — price the day we called it
$160.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$169.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$154.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 41 days.

At window close
+22.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+34.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$154.98
last close inside the window, ended December 17, 2025
Peak price
$169.69
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
41

The thesis — published September 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$160.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$121.91 – $125.89
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$126.16
published September 18, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam is benefiting from strong demand for chip-making tools. Many more buyers than usual are lifting the price, and a new cross-licensing deal with JSR should strengthen its know-how for leading-edge chips. The whole group improved after Nvidia's $5B Intel news and record market levels. Shares look a bit extended now, so consider buying small dips over the next 1 to 3 months rather than chasing quick spikes.

Primary drivers

  • Nvidia's Intel deal boosted interest in chip equipment makers
  • Unusually strong buying suggests the trend is still healthy
  • JSR partnership should boost Lam's expertise and advantage
  • AI and HBM spending supports steady demand for Lam's tools

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 41 days

Lyra published LRCX at $126.16 on 2025-09-18 with a short-term target of $160.91 and expected growth of 28%. The thesis pointed to strong demand for chip-making tools, unusually strong buying, a JSR partnership, Nvidia's Intel deal, record market levels, and spending tied to artificial intelligence and HBM.

Inside the window, LRCX reached the target in 41 days. It later peaked at $169.69 on 2025-12-10, with a peak gain of 34.5%. By 2025-12-17, it ended at $154.98, below the target but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-22, Lam Research reported adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share on sales of $5.32 billion for the quarter ended September 28, 2025. It also guided to $1.15 per share on $5.2 billion in sales for the quarter ending December 28, 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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