Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$167.98 – $173.48Entry zone — fair-value band

$173.27Published — price the day we called it

$228.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$170.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$212.18

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+22.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$170.94

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 18, 2025 – December 17, 2025

The thesis — published September 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+32%

over the measurement window

Target price

$228.70

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$167.98 – $173.48

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$173.27

published September 18, 2025

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia's price is catching its breath after a huge climb, but big drivers remain. A $5B partnership with Intel should boost how many chips it can build and design together. It plans to roll out 120,000 GPUs in the UK, expanding supply. Many traders are betting against the stock, which can speed up rebounds. Buying in small steps near recent prices is a sensible approach. We expect strength to return over the next 1 to 3 months as interest steadies.

Primary drivers

$5B Intel deal to co-build and co-design chips, raising capacity
Install 120,000 GPUs in the UK, adding a large new supply base
Many shorts; quick rebounds can occur when they rush to buy back
AI leadership keeps demand strong for chips and full systems

How it played out

NVDA: target not reached after a partial rise

Lyra published NVDA at 173.27 on 2025-09-18 with expected growth of 32%. The thesis pointed to a $5B Intel deal, plans to install 120,000 GPUs in the UK, short interest that could speed rebounds, and demand tied to artificial intelligence chips and full systems.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of 212.18 on 2025-10-29. That was a 22.5% gain, but it stayed below the 228.70 target. It ended the window at 170.94. The thesis partly played out, but the target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-22, NVIDIA and OpenAI announced a partnership tied to at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems and up to $100 billion of investment. On 2025-11-19, NVIDIA reported third quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $57.006 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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