Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from September 17, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 16, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 19 days.
The thesis — published September 17, 2025
AMD looks like it is healing after a rough patch. We plan to buy in small steps near this price range, and add if signs show lots more people are buying than usual and the trend firms up. Big picture demand from AI and data centers stays strong. Near term, Intel may win some server orders, which is a drag, but a possible Fed rate cut could lift growth stocks. Expect a bumpy 0-3 months with upside if the wider market and new products gain traction.
Primary drivers
- Long-term boost from rising AI and data center spending
- Intel winning some server sales with Granite Rapids is a near-term risk
- Possible Fed rate cut could make investors pay more for growth stocks
- We would add more shares if buying activity clearly picks up
How it played out
AMD: target reached in 19 days
Lyra published AMD at 160.98 on 2025-09-17 for a short-term window through 2025-12-16. The thesis expected 22% growth and a target of 196.40. It pointed to artificial intelligence and data center demand, a near-term Intel server risk, a possible Fed rate cut, and a plan to add only if buying activity picked up.
Inside the window, AMD reached the target in 19 days. The stock peaked at 267.08 on 2025-10-29, with a 65.9% peak gain. It ended the window at 209.17, still above the target. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On October 6, 2025, AMD announced a multi-year chip supply agreement with OpenAI, with the first deployment scheduled for Q2 2026. In Q3 FY2025, AMD reported total revenue of $9.2 billion, up 36% year over year.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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